Heat pumps in Texas: the honest math

Few topics in home energy generate more confident, contradictory advice than heat pumps in Texas. The truth is less dramatic than either camp suggests — and more useful.

The climate case is real

Heat pumps move heat instead of making it, which is why they deliver two to four units of heat per unit of electricity. Their efficiency drops as outdoor temperatures fall — but Central Texas winters barely test modern equipment. Today's inverter systems hold strong output well below 20°F, and Austin sees a handful of those hours a year.

For cooling — which is 80% of our conditioning load — a modern heat pump simply is a high-efficiency air conditioner. You give up nothing.

The rate math, honestly

At typical Central Texas electric and gas rates, an inverter heat pump costs about the same to run as a 96% gas furnace on a mild winter day, and pulls ahead as equipment efficiency rises or gas rates climb. The decisive factors are your specific rates, your home's envelope, and — critically — what you're replacing.

Replacing resistance strip heat? The heat pump wins by a landslide; expect heating costs to drop by half or more.

Replacing a working high-efficiency gas furnace? The operating savings alone may not justify early retirement. Wait for end-of-life, then convert.

The dual-fuel middle path

For homes with existing gas service, we frequently recommend dual-fuel: an inverter heat pump carries roughly 90–95% of heating hours, with the gas furnace engaging only during hard freezes. You get heat pump economics almost all year, gas resilience during grid-stress cold snaps, and a smaller heat pump doing what it does best.

Don't leave the credits on the table

Qualifying heat pump installations currently earn a federal tax credit of up to 30% (capped at $2,000 under 25C), and utility rebates stack on top. On a $14,000 conversion, real-world incentives routinely cover $2,500–$4,000. We prepare the paperwork with every eligible installation.

The bottom line

If your cooling equipment is due for replacement anyway, choosing a heat pump over a straight AC is close to free — and buys you the cheapest heating you've ever had. That's the quiet math the headlines miss.